The ‘India Factor’ and the Future Security Landscape in South Asia: Conflict, Competition, or Cooperation?

Abstract

Pakistan’s inception in 1947 coincided with the advent of an immediate and proximate threat from India resulting in a war on Kashmir, another war in 1965, the 1971 War that caused secession of Pakistan, and an armed clash in 1999. These substantial adverse developments have created what scholars call ‘India factor’ in the foreign and security policies of Pakistan. This paper aims to answer the question about whether the ‘India factor’ would continue to dominate the future bilateral and regional security landscape. The paper starts with an overview of the causes of the genesis of this factor, borrows theoretical insights from classical realism, and traces the historical development of this factor. The next main parts discuss the current state of affairs with respect to ‘India factor’ and submits future predictions. This paper argues that in the light of theoretical guidelines there are three likely key areas that would dominate the bilateral and multilateral ties of Pakistan i.e. a possible conflict, a probable competition between Islamabad and New Delhi, and a narrow possibility of cooperation.